From the Cox Automotive Newsroom

USED-VEHICLE SALES AND VALUES EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN Q2

Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke and Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights, hosted the Q1 2022 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Call on Thursday, April 7, along with Manheim Consulting’s Kevin Chartier and Manheim Digital’s Zach Hallowell. The team discussed the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index in addition to major trends and metrics for the quarter.
 
“We anticipate the second quarter – and particularly April – will be the strongest part of the year for used-vehicle sales and values,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “Once we get through the spring, we expect demand to wane somewhat and should see closer to normal price depreciation patterns for the rest of the year. That said, we think our call for not expecting a price crash in 2022 – just depreciation – is still very likely given continued challenges with supply conditions.”
 
Watch the event replay, download the presentation and read the press release for additional details.

SALES MOMENTUM PICKS UP AND SUPPLY IS TIGHTENING AGAIN

In his biweekly Auto Market Report video, Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke says Dealertrack data show retail vehicle sales momentum picking up, especially in the used market where supply is keeping up with demand. However, supply is tight and tightening again. Check the Cox Automotive Newsroom later this week for new and used inventory Data Points.

Auto credit availability improved again, according to the March Dealertrack Credit Availability Index, which was the highest recorded in the data series going back to January 2015.

Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Smoke that provide a holistic view of the auto industry.

ICYMI: Watch the replay of the Q1 2022 Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Webcast. 

TEN PREDICTIONS FOR 2022 GET ‘B+’ GRADE IN Q1

At the end of the first quarter, we looked back at the 10 trends that the Cox Automotive Industry Insights team laid out in the early days of 2022 that are shaping the auto industry this year. Overall, the Cox Automotive team remains optimistic about the industry. The overall conditions are right for higher sales, but vehicle sales remain relatively weak due to the low inventory level and will not improve until more supply is available. In addition to the chip shortage and supply chain issues carried over from last year, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has created new supply challenges.

So, with three months behind us, we took out a red pen and assessed our 2022 predictions so far. Here’s a look at our Q1 grade.      

NEW-VEHICLE TRANSACTION PRICES DECLINE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH, BUT REMAIN ABOVE MSRP IN MARCH, ACCORDING TO KELLEY BLUE BOOK 

New-vehicle average transaction prices decreased to $45,927 in March 2022 after reaching a record high in December 2021, according to data released yesterday by Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. Prices fell 0.3{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} ($156) month over month, remaining elevated compared to one year ago, up 12.9{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} ($5,247) from March 2021.
 
New-vehicle inventory days’ supply was in the low 30s in March while customer demand remained high. These conditions enabled dealers to continue selling inventory at or above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP). In March, new vehicles from Kia, Honda and Mercedes-Benz were transacting on average between 7.8{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} and 9.8{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} over MSRP. On the other side of the spectrum, Volvo, Buick and Lincoln were selling around 1{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} below MSRP.
 
Find out more details, including price change percentage by automaker and the industry average incentive spend as a percentage of the average transaction price.

MANHEIM EXPANDS LOTVISION CAPABILITIES TO INCLUDE VEHICLE DIAGNOSTIC TROUBLE CODE DATA

In a move that will help clients make more informed and confident buying decisions, Manheim is deploying diagnostic trouble code vehicle information at all LotVision-enabled locations nationwide. The expanded capabilities will be available on roughly 80{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} of Manheim’s vehicle inventory in Q2 following the success of a two-month pilot program at locations in Texas and California. Today, LotVision tracks approximately 98{cfdf3f5372635aeb15fd3e2aecc7cb5d7150695e02bd72e0a44f1581164ad809} of Manheim’s vehicle inventory.
 
See the press release published today for more details on how Manheim offers its clients the most robust listing of generic diagnostic codes.

SIX TAKEAWAYS FROM LATEST CHIP SHORTAGE CONSUMER IMPACT STUDY

Consumers are pessimistic about today’s automotive market, which remains hobbled by inventory shortages due to the global computer chip shortage that has, in turn, led to high vehicle prices, according to the most recent survey by Cox Automotive.
 
Cox Automotive has been tracking consumer behavior and attitudes regarding the chip shortage and its consequences since it began in the summer of 2021. The latest survey, conducted in early March, shows more consumers than ever are aware of the situation. They expect shortages to last for six months or more and prices to continue to rise. To cope, some intend to postpone their purchases. Others plan to order and wait for their vehicles.
 
See the six key takeaways from the latest in the series of Cox Automotive consumer surveys.