MLB lockout: League sets new deadline for considering full season, could cancel more games Tuesday, per report

MLB lockout: League sets new deadline for considering full season, could cancel more games Tuesday, per report
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Major League Baseball presented the MLB Players Association with a new set of collective bargaining proposal hypotheticals as part of a Zoom call on Monday, and did so while setting a new deadline to avoid further regular season game cancellations, according to The Athletic‘s Evan Drellich. The league’s latest self-imposed time limit will fall sometime on Tuesday evening. 

Commissioner Rob Manfred scrapped the first two series on the schedule this past week as the owner-imposed deadline entered a third month, and he is prepared to scrap another two series if the two sides fail to come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement by the deadline. 

In an interesting and predictable twist, the league has informed the union that it views Tuesday as the last chance for the season to be 162 games in length and for the players to receive both full pay and full service time. As Drellich noted, none of those aspects can be dictated unilaterally, and each is subject to further negotiation between the sides.

The two series that Manfred canceled last week could be added to the end of the schedule if an agreement is reached on Tuesday, according to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale. The odds of the two sides reaching a new deal on Tuesday still seem unfavorable, though Nightengale added that the league’s self-imposed deadline could be pushed to Wednesday if there’s significant progress Tuesday. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted, one player briefed on the league’s call was told that the parameters remained “tilted in the league’s favor.”

The league did up its offer on the Competitive Balance Tax threshold to $228 million, per Drellich. The union has requested that it start at $238 million, but that’s the number the league would have it swell to over the course of the CBA. Previously, the league had been offering to begin the CBA with a tax threshold of $220 million. Drellich notes that the league’s offer has “major strings attached.”

Former Marlins president David Samson broke down the latest in the MLB lockout on Tuesday’s Nothing Personal with David Samson. Listen below:

As a reminder, here’s where things stood after the union’s latest proposal on Sunday that saw them cede ground on multiple matters, including the league’s ability to implement a pitch clock, larger bases and defensive positioning rules in 2023:

  • The union lowered its request on the pre-arbitration bonus pool from $85 million to $80 million. The owners previously proposed a $30 million central fund, meaning the gap there remains sizable at $50 million.
  • As mentioned above, the union ceded no ground on its request for the Competitive Balance Tax to begin at $238 million and grow to $263 million. The league had countered with a CBT threshold that starts at $220 million and slowly climbs to $230 million. That changed on Monday, with the league going up to $228 million to begin and $238 million to end. This has been arguably the hottest button issue in negotiations, with four owners reportedly voting no to the proposal based solely on the CBT threshold.
  • The union also made no movement on its ask for a higher league minimum salary of $725,000, with annual raises of $20,000. The league has offered a minimum of $700,000 with annual raises of $10,000.
  • The union wants a draft lottery to determine the top six picks every summer as a means of curbing anti-competitive behavior. The league wants that lottery to cover only the top five picks.

A league spokesperson released a statement on Sunday suggesting the union’s offer was a step backward. 

MLB lockout: Five takeaways as Rob Manfred cancels regular season games after owners, MLBPA fail to reach deal

MLB lockout: Five takeaways as Rob Manfred cancels regular season games after owners, MLBPA fail to reach deal

After an extension of Monday’s informal deadline, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association were unable to strike a new collective bargaining agreement that would end the owner-imposed lockout on Tuesday. MLB, which set a 5 p.m. ET deadline for a deal, made what it called its “best and final offer” Tuesday afternoon, which was unanimously rejected by the union. Soon thereafter, commissioner Rob Manfred announced in a press conference that regular season games will be canceled. 

“I had hoped against hope I wouldn’t have to have this press conference where I am going to cancel some regular season games,” Manfred said. “We worked hard to avoid an outcome that’s bad for our fans, bad for our players, and bad for our clubs. Our failure to reach an agreement was not due to a lack of effort by either party.”  

Manfred added the first two series of the 2022 season will not be played as scheduled. Opening Day was originally scheduled for Thursday, March 31, and has been pushed back at least one week. Manfred laughed and joked his way through part of Tuesday’s press conference and it was not lost on the players.

“Today is a sad day. We came to Florida to navigate and negotiate for a fair collective bargaining agreement. Despite meeting daily, there is still significant work to be done,” MLBPA executive Tony Clark said Tuesday. “The reason we are not playing is simple: a lockout is the ultimate economic weapon. In a $10 billion dollar industry, the owners have decided to use this weapon against the greatest asset they have: the players.”

The MLBPA issued the following statement Tuesday evening:

Rob Manfred and MLB’s owners have cancelled the start of the season. Players and fans around the world who love baseball are disgusted, but sadly not surprised.

From the beginning of these negotiations, Players’ objectives have been consistent — to promote competition, provide fair compensation for young Players, and to uphold the integrity of our market system. Against the backdrop of growing revenues and record profits, we are seeking nothing more than a fair agreement.

What Rob Manfred characterized as a “defensive lockout” is, in fact, the culmination of a decades-long attempt by owners to break our Player fraternity. As in the past, this effort will fail. We are united and committed to negotiating a fair deal that will improve the sport for Players, fans and everyone who loves our game.  

“They set a deadline here. We’re willing to stay here and have a conversation tomorrow,” Clark said. “We’re willing to fly back to New York. We’re willing to go wherever we need to go to get back in the room and continue the dialogue that has begun.”

Tuesday marked the three-month anniversary of the lockout, and the next step is uncertain. Manfred said the two sides will regroup at some point and continue negotiations, though “no agreement is possible until Thursday.” In all likelihood, MLB and the MLBPA will wait at least a few days before scheduling their next bargaining session.

“If it was solely within my ability or the ability of the clubs to get an agreement, we’d have an agreement,” Manfred, who often touts his deal-making ability, said Tuesday. “The tough thing about this process is we have to get an agreement from both parties.”

Representatives from both sides arrived on site in Jupiter, Florida, around 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday. They met face-to-face for the first time around 1:30 p.m., after the players had a conference call to discuss their proposal, per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Although optimism prevailed following Monday’s marathon 16-hour bargaining session, Tuesday occasioned a step back.

MLB originally created a Monday (Feb. 28) deadline to reach an agreement before canceling regular-season games. CBS Sports has provided a timeline of the lockout here, but the short version is owners placed the padlocks on when the previous CBA expired on Dec. 1. They were under no obligation to do so, yet it was labeled as a “defensive” maneuver. The league then waited more than six weeks to make its first proposal. 

Here are five takeaways now that Tuesday’s owner-imposed deadline has come and gone.

1. Regular season games will be missed

To reiterate, Opening Day will be delayed and regular season games will be missed now that MLB’s informal deadline has passed. It will be the first time baseball has lost regular season games to a work stoppage since the 1994-95 players’ strike. A total of 90 games have been canceled thus far.

“So what’s next? The calendar dictates that we’re not going to be able to play the first two series of the regular season, and those games are officially canceled,” Manfred said Tuesday. “… Our position is games that will not be played, players will not be paid for.”

It should be noted the length of the season, how players are paid, and the schedule itself are workplace conditions subject to bargaining between MLB and the MLBPA. Manfred does not get to unilaterally declare players will not be paid for games missed. In 2020, the union gave Manfred that power under their March Agreement amid the pandemic, but that was a one-time move.

“It would be our position in the event of games being canceled — that as a feature of any deal for us to come back — that we would be asking for compensation and/or that those games rescheduled,” MLBPA chief negotiator Bruce Meyer said Tuesday.  

2. Expanded postseason may be off the table

MLB and the MLBPA reportedly agreed to the framework of an expanded 12-team postseason field on Monday, though the union had previously warned they would not agree to an expanded postseason if players are not paid their full salaries in 2022. Now that regular season games (and potentially salary) will be missed, MLB may have to wait for an expanded postseason.

It’s important to note MLB could agree to pay the players their full salary for a shortened season, in which case the union would likely agree to an expanded postseason field. After all, the players stand to benefit from an expanded postseason too. More postseason games equals more ticket and gate revenue, and that equals a larger postseason pool for players.

For now, expect to make the MLBPA make good on its threat to pull an expanded postseason off the table now that regular season games will be missed. That isn’t to say the two sides can’t reach an agreement that expands the postseason, just that the union is likely to dig in and play hardball with this lucrative item.

3. MLB is trying to deflect blame

If you’ve paid attention throughout the lockout, you may have noticed MLB invariably describes their proposals as “productive” while portraying the MLBPA’s offers as going backwards or overreaching. The league carefully plays the PR game and that was true again late Monday night, then they claimed the two sides were close to a deal while the union cautioned they were still far apart.

“We’ve also been clear and consistent that there are major issues on which we’re very far apart,” Meyer said. “That hasn’t changed. There have been and still are major issues.”  

Then, after receiving the MLBPA’s proposal on Tuesday, the league claimed the players had a “decidedly different tone today and made proposals inconsistent with the prior discussions.” It was a transparent attempt to shift the blame for the lockout — the lockout started and continued by ownership — to the players in the court of public opinion. The players were understandably not happy.

Player agent Allen Walsh explained NHL commissioner Gary Bettman used the same tactics in 2005, claiming the two sides where close to an agreement in an effort to pressure the players to accept a deal, even after the 2004-05 NHL season was canceled. 

The entire MLB season hasn’t been canceled yet, though it’s clear MLB is trying to deflect blame toward the players. Ultimately, the owners chose to lock out the players, chose to wait 43 days to make their first offer, and chose to set artificial deadlines on Monday and Tuesday. This was (and still is) avoidable, but instead, games will be missed because the owners and Manfred say so.

4. MLB is barely budging on luxury tax thresholds

Perhaps the single biggest issue on the table is the competitive balance tax (i.e. luxury tax), or baseball’s soft salary cap. MLB backed off its proposal for increased penalties within the last 48 hours, though the sides remained very far apart on the thresholds. Here is each side’s final luxury tax threshold proposal:

2022

$220 million

$238 million

2023

$220 million

$244 million

2024

$220 million

$250 million

2025

$224 million

$245 million

2026

$230 million

$263 million

The luxury tax threshold was $210 million in 2021. MLB proposing zero increase in 2023 and 2024 is an unserious offer given how much additional revenue the league is set to rake in through an expanded postseason and the new national television contracts that kick in this year (assuming baseball is played). “A slap in the face,” one player told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

MLB and the MLBPA are still a ways apart on other matters — there’s a $55 million gap in the new pre-arbitration bonus pool and a $25,000 gap in minimum salary — though those gaps have been considered more bridgeable than the luxury tax threshold. MLB revenues have increased on average eight percent a year since 2002, and their proposed luxury tax threshold increase from 2022-26 is 4.5 percent total.

“It’s important to look at the patterns of CBT increases over the last several agreements,” Manfred said Tuesday, though those patterns are what the union takes issue with because the threshold has not increased at the same rate as revenue.

5. MLB did not issue a ‘last, best offer’

MLB described Tuesday’s offer as their “best and final offer,” not their “last, best offer,” and there’s an important distinction. “Last, best offer” is a phrase management uses before declaring a legal impasse, and an impasse would allow MLB to unilaterally implement Tuesday’s offer.

“We never used the phrase ‘last, best final offer’ with the union,” Manfred said Tuesday. “We said it was our best offer prior to the deadline to cancel games. Our negotiations are deadlocked right now, but that’s different than using the legal term ‘impasse,’ and I’m not going to do that right now.”

In the event Manfred declares an impasse, the MLBPA would undoubtedly respond by filing an unfair labor practices charge, and the National Labor Relations Board could issue a complaint for failure to bargain in good faith. An impasse would lead to the two sides winding up in front of a judge, essentially.

For now, Manfred has not taken the necessary steps to declare a legal impasse, instead saying the owners “like the keep the idea that we are willing to go back to the table and make an agreement.”

CBS Sports provided live updates of Tuesday’s talks below.  

Fantasy Baseball Today: H2H Categories industry mock draft plus updating lockout and other news

Fantasy Baseball Today: H2H Categories industry mock draft plus updating lockout and other news

Happy Thursday, everyone! The clock is ticking for the MLB and the MLB Players Association to come to an agreement after meeting for the third straight day on Wednesday in Jupiter, FL. We’ll have an update with more on the ongoing negotiations and what they could mean for the regular season below. But the focus of today’s newsletter will be Wednesday’s industry mock draft — key takeaways from the mock that included the entire Fantasy Baseball Today team — Scott White, Frank Stampfl and Chris Towers.

What I found most interesting about this mock was how much impact the scoring and format had on the draft results. This was our first mock with this specific scoring format — head-to-head and categories — and it had a major impact on where players went. For starters, finding stolen bases are tackles with an entirely different approach. 

While it can be argued that stolen bases are made even more important in this format, that may only be true for players who steal a lot of bases rather than those who accumulate between 10-15 over the course of a season. The latter are a lot more valuable in Roto scoring leagues. Scott has advocated for a “zero-stolen base” strategy in 2022 — which is not exactly as it sounds — and a lot more like the “zero RB” counterpart we’ve seen used in Fantasy Football. In a H2H categories format, punting the steals category can pay major dividends — specifically if you build out a strong pitching staff. 

We’ll have a lot more on the mock draft below, but first, let’s get to some news and notes on the lockout and more. 

And of course, as always, you can follow to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify

Lockout update

According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, a MLB spokesperson said Wednesday that regular season games will be canceled if an agreement on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement isn’t reached by Feb. 28. That gives us just four more days for the two sides to come to an agreement before we have to start worrying about losing games. For a more detailed look at how this impending decision and others will impact the Fantasy Baseball season, your drafts and more, be sure to check back on the Fantasy Baseball main page later today where Towers will be providing a detailed lockout primer. 

Per the spokesperson, “A deadline is a deadline… Missed games are missed games. Salary will not be paid for those games.” 

The expectation is that the MLB doesn’t intend to rewrite the schedule and would simply pick up whenever games begin. The owners seem prepared to extend the lockout into March, which would cancel early-season games. Both sides remain far apart in negotiations on a number of key issues, namely the major-league minimum salary, pre-arbitration bonus pools, MLB Draft lottery slots and competitive balance tax (CBT) thresholds.

Other news and notes

  • Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr. (forearm) is “behind” in his recovery from a forearm strain that he sustained during the 2021 postseason. Per McCullers, while he has resumed throwing, he has yet to throw off a mound. 
  • Rangers 3B prospect Josh Jung underwent surgery on Wednesday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. This is terrible news considering Jung was one of the most pro-ready prospects in the game and had a chance to make the opening day roster after batting .326/.398/.592 batting line with 19 homers in 78 games last year between his time at Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock.

Key takeaways from Scott

  • Kyle Tucker, who’s normally a borderline first-rounder, slipped to the middle of Round 2, behind notables like Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Luis Robert and Jacob deGrom. Apparently, others agree that his 12-15 steals don’t have the same impact a week at a time as they do over a full season in Roto.
  • Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader continue to set a new standard for how early high-end relievers should go, bookending Round 4 in this draft. Interestingly, Raisel Iglesias got stapled to them this time, going with the first pick of Round 5, which then led to Ryan Pressly and Edwin Diaz going a couple picks later. I am not in favor.
  • All of those reliever picks likely contributed to Francisco Lindor slipping to Round 7, which I think is more appropriate than Round 4, where he normally goes. Tim Anderson slid along with him.
  • For more takeaways from Scott and the full draft results, check out the mock recap.

More takeaways

  • Chris brought up an excellent point on the live YouTube recap of the draft: If you’re concerned about drafting a player with an injury history, the shallower rosters and H2H format make supposed injury-prone players a little less scary.
  • Angels DH/SP Shohei Ohtani went off the board at No. 9 overall and a case can be made that he should be the No. 1 overall pick in this format because you can set him in your lineups every day and get his stats as both a pitcher and hitter.
  • Frank was actively looking to avoid the steals category in this format, one of the reasons he avoided Astros OF Kyle Tucker at the end of Round 1. One thing to note if you’re planning to punt steals, it works better in these H2H leagues where there is only one win per week rather than each category tallies a point (EX: 9-1, 8-2). If you’re last in steals, you’re still going to have a chance to win the category in a given week vs. in a Roto scoring format where you’ll finish with the least points in that category.
  • Scott put his money where his mouth is by drafting Orioles OF Cedric Mullins in Round 3. Scott is particularly high on Mullins and leaving every draft with Royals C Salvador Perez, who he ironically regretted not selecting in Round 3.
  • This might be the earliest we’ve EVER seen Towers take a closer. At the end of the fourth round, he selected Brewers RP Josh Hader. We’ve seen him go full drafts without going with a closer, but in this draft, he is rolling with a modified Marmol strategy. This strategy stresses the importance of building a staff with productive relievers. Chris then did something even more unexpected, though in line with his strategy for this specific mock, when he drafted Angels RP Raisel Iglesias right after Hader.

More Draft Prep

  • There are breakouts and sleepers, but what about the players who are being drafted at a notable discount due to recency bias? Those players qualify as post-hype sleepers. Scott’s group of 18 post-hype sleepers includes former top prospects and players with notable upside who the consensus is giving up on far too soon.
  • Towers did an excellent job breaking down why you should be passing on name-brand players with inflated ADPs for these five cheaper alternatives. And then also these five additional value picks.
  • Scott also dove into the best and worst-case scenarios for these 15 potential first-round draft picks. I really enjoyed this one because it gave an excellent perspective on floor vs. ceiling for first-round picks. I’m a believer in prioritizing floor with early-round investments.